187 research outputs found
La composition du patrimoine des ménages entre 1997 et 2003.
Entre 1997 et 2003, le patrimoine des ménages a crû beaucoup plus rapidement que leur revenu du fait de la revalorisation des actifs immobiliers et leur épargne financière s’est davantage orientée vers des placements à risque.Ménages, patrimoine financier, patrimoine immobilier, logements et terrains, placements financiers, dépôts à vue, épargne-logement, livrets d’épargne, assurance-vie, valeurs mobilières, inégalités de patrimoine, choix de portefeuille, épargne, actifs risqués, diversification, comptes financiers, enquêtes Patrimoine.
Sources of pro-cyclicality in east Asian financial systems
Procyclicality is a normal feature of economic systems, but financial sector
weaknesses can exacerbate it sufficiently to pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial
stability. These include shortcomings in bank risk management and governance, in
supervision and in terms of dependence on volatile sources of funds. The paper tests
econometrically for the importance of such features leading to pro-cyclicality in the financial
systems of 11 East Asian countries. This analysis makes it possible to identify specific policy
measures for East Asian countries that could limit the extent to which financial systems
exacerbate pro-cyclicality
Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of
Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between
the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France,
several relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change rate of labour
force was used as a driving force of inflation and unemployment within the
Phillips curve framework. The set of nested models starts with a simplistic
version without autoregressive terms and one lagged term of explanatory
variable. The lag is determined empirically together with all coefficients. The
model is estimated using the Boundary Element Method (BEM) with the least
squares method applied to the integral solutions of the differential equations.
All models include one structural break might be associated with revisions to
definitions and measurement procedures in the 1980s and 1990s as well as with
the change in monetary policy in 1994-1995. For the GDP deflator, our original
model provided a root mean squared forecast error (RMSFE) of 1.0% per year at a
four-year horizon for the period between 1971 and 2004. The rate of CPI
inflation is predicted with RMSFE=1.5% per year. For the naive (no change)
forecast, RMSFE at the same time horizon is 2.95% and 3.3% per year,
respectively. Our model outperforms the naive one by a factor of 2 to 3. The
relationships for inflation were successfully tested for cointegration. We have
formally estimated several vector error correction (VEC) models for two
measures of inflation. At a four year horizon, the estimated VECMs provide
significant statistical improvements on the results obtained by the BEM:
RMSFE=0.8% per year for the GDP deflator and ~1.2% per year for CPI. For a two
year horizon, the VECMs improve RMSFEs by a factor of 2, with the smallest
RMSFE=0.5% per year for the GDP deflator.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure
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